Meditation on Small Circles
I'm over the Indian Ocean, 2,000 miles away from Hong Kong, but I am flying Cathay Pacific, so it's like I never left. On the airplane's TV screen is the new Canto-comedy "My Mother Is a Belly Dancer," followed by the latest news feed from Hong Kong's Cable TV. To my surprise, the report is All Alan Leong All The Time. (Leong is the Civic Party barrister who has volunteered to be the democrats' guaranteed-to-lose standard bearer in Hong Kong's upcoming "election.")
Shots of smiling Civic Party members, Audrey Eu in an oh-so-chic pink coat, waving and raising hands in victory salutes. Closeups of the candidate smiling, shaking hands with The People. It all looks like....
Well, it looks like a real election being covered by journalists in some place where the elections are, in fact, a true representation of the public's mandate.
Why has the usually pro-establishment Hong Kong media become so enthusiastic about Leong and his race to nowhere? Watching the feed for a second time, with the sound off, it suddenly hits me: covering the elections of national leaders is one of the signature events in journalism, world-wide. There's probably even a separate course on it in j-school. And this is the first time all these young, eager HK journalism majors have had the chance to do it, for real.
For real--sort of.
The other night before I left HK, I got into a discussion with my friend David about whether Leong's candidacy was a good or bad move for Hong Kong's democrats. David thinks it was a good idea, and that Long Hair is wrong to be out there waving protest placards in Alan Leong's face. It looks bad, and makes the democrats look disunited, weak.
I said I wasn't sure. On one hand, Long Hair and the LSD party hold the moral high ground. They're saying there's no point in dignifying a farce by participating in it.
On the other hand, I thought the Civic Party's canny old-fashioned politicking, which earned them enough votes to get 100 of their electors elevated into the "small circle", was pretty cool. It's a great reality check for Donald Tsang and the bureaucrats in Beijing. Hong Kongers are ready to fight for democracy. And they know how to play hardball.
So I was officially neutral on Alan Leong--I was happy he had pulled off the nomination, and also happy Long Hair and his cronies were out there protesting the election system and the whole farce, Alan Leong included.
I was neutral, that is, until today. Maybe there is a clarity that comes with being 36,000 feet and thousands of miles from HK, but as I watched the Cable TV shots of the cheering Civic Party, I realized this: if it looks like an election on TV, then a lot of people are going to begin to believe it is an election. And that is not going to help the cause of universal suffrage in Hong Kong.
Long Hair is right.
And I must go now, into a country of nearly a billion people, most of them far less well-off and educated than the average Hong Konger. All of them with the right to vote.
I haven't seen any of Long Hair waving placards at Leong.
I did see him getting hauled out of a Donald Tsang press conference. It was good to see both the more active approach of Long Hair or the more passive hand in the air approach of the Democrats like Lee Wing-tat side-by-side.
I also saw on a TVB news journal tonight, Leong and Emily Lau sitting at a fold-up table in Mongkok discussing just this issue with the crowd, since Ms. Lau is one of the more adamant boycotters of the small circle election.
And it may give the people a taste of what a real election could be, though I don't think any one in Hong Kong thinks 111 is anywhere close to 400 or thinks that this election is anything but pre-determined.
The real question for Long Hair and the Social Democrats is what impact do they think this campaign will have on public opinion towards the CSD report on Constitutional Reform.
With 90% wanting a contested election and this one obviously not being contested, can the LSD put pressure on the CSD towards a report that calls for a true contested election.
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You may be right in saying, "if it looks like an election on TV, then a lot of people are going to begin to believe it is an election" but I think and hope the people are smart and realized what this "election" for what it is. And I think Alan Leong won't let the public forget what the democratic group is trying to achieve in this "small circle" election.
I hope and wish the HK reporters will do a good job asking both candidates some tough questions in this election.
Sorry for going on a bit of a tangent. I don't know if I am being naive to expect much from the HK reporters when even US reporters (at least the White House ones) didn't seem to do or be able to do get their jobs done. Stephen Colbert kick-ass performance at the 2006 White House Press Corps dinner will remain a classic in my mind for a long time for the laughs and scarier truths of what happened in US and what the White House Press Corps didn't do. End of tangent.
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Alan Leong's challenge to Tsang is an essential step forward. When Tung went unchallenged in 02, or when Tsang went unchallenged, there was less pressure for them to go on the record about anything. HK was left with a "trust me I know what's best for you" campaign slogan. Leong will force Tsang to make promises, compile a platform, go on the record. Tsang will have to defend his record, in public, in two televised debates.
This is all a major step forward. Momentum is being created, as people are getting a greater sense of what it means to have a contested election. And I seriously doubt if anyone is going to be fooled by all the TV coverage into complacency re: the status quo, relinquishing aspirations for eventual universal suffrage. In fact, all of this publicity, the airtime given to Leong's critique of the problems facing the SAR and the government's failure to adequately address them, could end up galvanizing support for further political change.
Consider this: Beijing very cleverly replaced Tung with a man most HKers would have voted for if they could. This strategy poured some cold water on the movement for universal suffrage. As long as Beijing picks competent, well-liked bureaucrats to run the SAR, all will be well. An uncontested CE election would prevent any great scrutiny of Sir Donald's term in office, and, with a 50-60% approval rating, Beijing could just go on with business as usual. But what would happen if Leong is able to turn public sentiment against Tsang? 90% of HKers want a contested CE election, but many (most?) still support Tsang for the job. What would happen if Leong is able to sway an overwhelming majority of average HKers--through his performance at debates, electioneering, and policy proposals--but Tsang is still shoehorned into the job?
Universal suffrage will be an uphill battle if the Chief Executive has broad, popular support. Leong can erode Tsang's support, so when he is anointed, more people will feel that Beijing's will conflicted with their own, and that will be more effective than any boycott.
And who knows? With a secret ballot this time around, Leong could still get lucky...("wait I thought you were gonna vote for Tsang, I was casting a protest/blank vote")...even if Tsang doesn't lose, if the race is even marginally close, that means a major loss of face in a country where leaders typically expect 99.9 percent of the vote to be decided well in advance of the actual election.
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